Where bitcoin's 200-week moving average stands, how far the price is above or below it and every week bitcoin closed under it, from real daily closes on the Bybit exchange. Switch to the 100-week, 50-week, 200-day, 100-day or 50-day average and test a rule that holds bitcoin only above the line, with trading costs.
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A weekly close here is the daily close on Sunday, the last day of a Monday to Sunday week in UTC. The 200-week moving average is the plain average of the last 200 weekly closes, so each new week adds one close and drops the oldest. The daily averages work the same way with daily closes. Bybit's BTCUSD history starts on November 14, 2018, which puts the first 200-week average on September 11, 2022. The shorter averages start earlier.
The colored dots are this page's version of the 200 week moving average heatmap. LookIntoBitcoin, which credits the idea to PlanB, colors the price by the month-by-month percentage increase of the 200-week average. Here each weekly close gets a color from how much the 200-week average rose over the four weeks before it, in five steps from under 1.25% to 3.25% or more. Pick another average to draw its line, and use the test below the chart to hold bitcoin only while the close is above the line, with a 0.1% fee and 0.05% slippage on every buy and sell.
Bitcoin closed at $84,029.10 on September 25, 2026, 28.3% above its 200-week average of $65,481.47, which is the average as of the weekly close of September 20, 2026. The close was also above the 50-week, 200-day, 100-day and 50-day averages, but 6.0% below the 100-week average of $89,394.59.
| Average | Value | First value | Close of September 25 vs average |
|---|---|---|---|
| 200-week | $65,481.47 | September 11, 2022 | +28.3% |
| 100-week | $89,394.59 | October 11, 2020 | -6.0% |
| 50-week | $78,753.77 | October 27, 2019 | +6.7% |
| 200-day | $70,897.63 | June 1, 2019 | +18.5% |
| 100-day | $69,243.48 | February 21, 2019 | +21.4% |
| 50-day | $75,284.81 | January 2, 2019 | +11.6% |
Since the average first existed, bitcoin had 40 weekly closes below it out of 211. The longest stretch was 27 weeks in a row, from September 11, 2022 to March 12, 2023, with the lowest close 32.2% under the line on November 20, 2022. Three shorter dips followed in 2023, and three single weeks closed below the line in 2026, on June 28, August 2 and August 16. The highest weekly close relative to the line was 2.47 times the average, on December 15, 2024.
The 200-week average itself rose in every four-week stretch of this data, by between 0.97% and 3.79%. It was $23,251.79 when it first appeared in September 2022 and $65,481.47 four years later.
The test holds bitcoin while the close is above the chosen average and moves to cash when it closes below, trading at the next day's close. Each row starts with $10,000 on the day its average first exists:
| Average | Start | Above the average | Buy and hold | Worst drop (rule / hold) | Buys and sells |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 200-week | September 12, 2022 | $15,281 | $37,411 | -54% / -53% | 14 |
| 100-week | October 12, 2020 | $68,992 | $72,588 | -56% / -77% | 4 |
| 50-week | October 28, 2019 | $55,872 | $90,747 | -58% / -77% | 24 |
| 200-day | June 2, 2019 | $63,323 | $95,871 | -55% / -77% | 64 |
| 100-day | February 22, 2019 | $307,318 | $212,444 | -47% / -77% | 104 |
| 50-day | January 3, 2019 | $298,866 | $221,399 | -62% / -77% | 152 |
There is no single answer. Holding only above the 100-day and 50-day averages beat buy and hold from early 2019 with smaller worst drops, but those rules traded 104 and 152 times. The 200-week rule started in cash in September 2022, when bitcoin was below the line, bought only on March 20, 2023 at $27,805.00 and later sold and bought back several times, ending with $15,281 against $37,411 for holding. The 50-week and 200-day rules also finished behind.
For other long-term views, the pi cycle top indicator compares the 111-day and 350-day averages, the bitcoin rainbow chart fits a trend line to the same closes, and moving averages explained covers how simple and exponential averages differ.
Educational, not financial advice. The chart shows where past prices stood against their averages. It does not predict a bottom or a top or recommend buying or selling bitcoin.
At the weekly close of September 20, 2026 it was $65,481.47, the average of the last 200 Sunday closes in this data. Bitcoin's close on September 25, 2026, $84,029.10, was 28.3% above it. The tool shows the value as of the last close in the data.
Yes. In this data there were 40 weekly closes below it: 27 in a row from September 2022 to March 2023, a few in 2023 and three single weeks in the summer of 2026.
The 200-day average uses the last 200 daily closes, about 29 weeks, and reacts faster. The 200-week average uses the last 200 weekly closes, almost four years, and moves slowly. At the last close they were $70,897.63 and $65,481.47.
A chart that colors bitcoin's price by how fast the 200-week average is rising. LookIntoBitcoin credits the idea to PlanB and colors by the month-by-month increase; this page colors each weekly close by the four-week increase, in five steps.
Not on its own. The price spent 27 weeks in a row below it in 2022 and 2023, and in the test on this page, holding only while bitcoin was above it ended with $15,281 against $37,411 for buy and hold.