Pi Cycle Top Indicator

How the indicator works

Philip Swift created the indicator in April 2019. His description on LookIntoBitcoin says it "uses the 111 day moving average (111DMA) and a newly created multiple of the 350 day moving average, the 350DMA x 2." A signal comes on the day the 111-day average closes above twice the 350-day average. The name comes from the two lengths: in Swift's words, "350 / 111 is 3.153, which is very close to Pi = 3.142."

Each moving average here is the plain average of the last 111 or 350 daily closes. Switch between bitcoin and ethereum, point at the chart to read any day, and move the sliders to change the two lengths and the multiplier. The table lists every signal with what the price did next, and the test below it sells one coin on each signal day and buys it back after the number of days you choose, with a 0.1% fee and 0.05% slippage on each order.

What the real data shows for bitcoin

Bybit's BTCUSD history starts on November 14, 2018, so the 350-day average first exists on October 29, 2019. From then to September 25, 2026 the indicator gave one bitcoin signal, on April 12, 2021, at a close of $59,887.00. The highest close within 90 days came the next day, $63,554.50 on April 13, 2021. Ninety days after the signal the price was 42.8% lower, and its lowest close in the following year was 50.3% below the signal-day close.

It gave no signal before the next two highs. Bitcoin closed at $67,623.50 on November 8, 2021 and at $124,659.40 on October 6, 2025, the highest close in this data. Since the start of 2022 the 111-day average came no closer than 26.4% below the slow line, on June 1, 2024. At the last close, $84,029.10 on September 25, 2026, it was 56.3% below.

Ethereum: an early signal

For ethereum the same settings signaled on March 5, 2021, at $1,530.80. Ethereum kept rising: the highest close within 90 days was $4,181.65 on May 11, 2021, 67 days later, and it closed at $4,814.75 on November 8, 2021. Selling one ETH on the signal and buying back 90 days later would have returned 0.5343 ETH after costs. The same trade in bitcoin returned 1.7436 BTC. One indicator, two coins, opposite results.

Change the settings and the signal moves

Swift introduced the indicator in 2019 by showing how it lined up with earlier bitcoin cycles. On this data, small changes to its numbers move or erase the one bitcoin signal. A 100-day fast average signals on March 10, 2021 and a 400-day slow average on March 4, 2021. A multiplier of 1.8 signals on February 18, 2021. A 120-day fast average, a 300-day slow average or a multiplier of 2.1 give no bitcoin signal at all. Try the sliders: a rule that only works with its exact original numbers has little room for error.

Limits

• Few signals. Swift writes that the indicator "has historically been effective in picking out the timing of market cycle highs within 3 days." Those earlier cycles are not in this data, which starts in 2018, so this page can only show the one bitcoin signal since 2019.
• A changing market. The creator's own page adds that "this indicator may cease to be relevant in this new market structure," pointing to bitcoin ETFs and bitcoin's wider use in finance.
• Contract prices. The chart uses Bybit's BTCUSD and ETHUSD inverse perpetual contracts, quoted in US dollars, because their daily history goes back to 2018 and 2019. On the 1,909 days when BTCUSD and Bybit's BTC/USDT spot pair both traded, their closes differed by a median of 0.05% and by at most 0.5% on 99.8% of days.

The bitcoin 200 week moving average chart looks at the slowest of the common averages, the bitcoin rainbow chart fits a long-term trend to the same prices, and the bitcoin halving chart lines the cycles up by halving date.