Every golden cross and death cross of bitcoin's 50-day and 200-day moving averages in real Bybit daily prices since 2019, what the price did 30, 90 and 365 days later, and a test of trading the crosses with fees. Switch to ether, XRP, solana, dogecoin, cardano or avalanche.
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StockCharts defines a golden cross as "a bullish pattern in which a faster and short-term moving average crosses above a slower and longer-term moving average" and adds that "the most common setting for this pattern uses a 50-day moving average (the faster MA) against a 200-day moving average (the slower MA)." A death cross is the reverse, when the 50-day simple moving average "crosses below a long-term moving average, most commonly a 200-day SMA."
This page uses that classic setting on daily closes at midnight UTC. Each average is the plain mean of the last 50 or 200 closes. A golden cross is the first close where the 50-day average ends above the 200-day after being below it, and a death cross the first close where it ends below. TradingView's guide to moving averages explains why the signal is late: "Because a Moving Average is a lagging indicator and reacts to events that have already happened, it is not used as a predictive indicator but rather an interpretive one."
Pick a coin and a range, point at the chart to read both averages on any day, and check the table for every cross and what followed. The test at the bottom holds the coin only while the 50-day average is above the 200-day and compares the result with buying and holding, after a 0.1% fee and 0.05% slippage on every trade.
The latest bitcoin golden cross in this data came on September 8, 2026, when the 50-day average closed above the 200-day with bitcoin at $78,407.10. It ended the death cross of November 16, 2025, which came at $94,159.90. On September 25, 2026, the last day in the data, the 50-day average was $75,284.81, 6.2% above the 200-day average of $70,897.63.
The 200-day average first exists in this data on June 1, 2019, when the 50-day was already above it. Since then bitcoin had 8 golden crosses and 8 death crosses. Of the 7 golden crosses that are at least 90 days old, 6 were followed by a higher close 90 days later, and the median change was +19.0%. Death crosses were no better at calling a fall: 90 days after 5 of the 8, bitcoin was higher, and the median change was +29.4%.
Some death crosses came close to a low. The one on March 25, 2020, at $6,686.50, was followed by a 43.9% rise over 90 days, and the one on September 12, 2023 by 59.7%. Others came early in a long fall: a year after the death cross of January 14, 2022, bitcoin was 51.3% lower. The golden cross of September 15, 2021 was followed by a 59.1% drop over the next year, while the one on May 21, 2020 came before a 311.9% rise.
Holding bitcoin only while the 50-day average was above the 200-day turned $10,000 on June 2, 2019 into $48,891.14 by September 25, 2026, after 18 buys and sells. Buying and holding over the same days ended at $95,871.50. The rule did soften the worst stretch: its deepest drop from a high was 64.8%, against 76.7% for holding, and 6 of its 9 round trips made money after costs.
The other six coins tell a similar story. The cross rule ended ahead of buying and holding only for dogecoin and avalanche, and in both cases the two results ended below the $10,000 they started with. For ether it finished at $50,682.05, against $128,692.17 for holding.
For the averages themselves, the bitcoin 200 week moving average page charts six of them, the Mayer Multiple divides the price by the 200-day average, and moving averages explained covers how they are built.
Educational, not financial advice. Crosses describe how past prices moved. They do not predict the next move or recommend buying or selling any coin.
In this data, on September 8, 2026, at a bitcoin close of $78,407.10: the 50-day average closed above the 200-day for the first time since the death cross of November 16, 2025. On September 25, 2026 the 50-day was still 6.2% above the 200-day.
On November 16, 2025, with bitcoin at $94,159.90. 90 days later it was 25.9% lower. The golden cross of September 8, 2026 ended it.
The same signal as in stocks: a shorter moving average, usually the 50-day, crossing above a longer one, usually the 200-day. A death cross is the 50-day crossing below. On this page the averages count every calendar day, because Bybit's daily data has a candle for each one, weekends included.
Not reliably in this data. 90 days after 5 of bitcoin's 8 death crosses since 2019, the price was higher, with a median change of +29.4%. Some death crosses came near lows, in March 2020 and September 2023; the one in January 2022 came early in a long fall.
Not in this data. Holding only while the 50-day average was above the 200-day turned $10,000 into $48,891.14 from June 2019 to September 2026, against $95,871.50 for buy and hold, after a 0.1% fee and 0.05% slippage on every trade. It did cut the deepest drop from 76.7% to 64.8%.