Twelve decisions on hidden real crypto charts: sell a winner or keep it, cut a loser or wait, chase a rally or buy a drop. At the end you see which habits your choices show and what they would have made after fees.
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In a 1998 study in the Journal of Finance, Terrance Odean described the disposition effect as "the tendency of investors to hold losing investments too long and sell winning investments too soon." He found it by "analyzing trading records for 10,000 accounts at a large discount brokerage house." This test checks your own choices for it, on real charts.
The twelve charts are real daily candles of bitcoin, ether, solana, XRP, dogecoin, cardano or avalanche from 2022 to 2026, in random order, with the coin and the date hidden. Each decision is a $1,000 position. Buys fill at the close plus 0.05% slippage, sells at the close minus 0.05%, and every fill pays a 0.1% fee. Nothing is scored until the last answer, so earlier results cannot steer later choices.
The test compares the share of winners you sold with the share of losers you sold, the idea behind Odean's Proportion of Gains Realized and Proportion of Losses Realized. Over a whole year, the investors in his data had a PGR of 0.148 and a PLR of 0.098: they took gains far more readily than losses. If you sold more winners than losers, you showed the same habit. The test also records whether you bought after rises, after falls, both or neither.
It then shows what your twelve choices made after costs, next to the opposite choices. Ten days is a short time, so that number is mostly luck; the habits are the part you control.
We found every day in the test's data that fits each situation, in the data of the 7 coins from January 2022 to September 2026, and measured the next ten days.
| Situation | Days found | Next 10 days up | Average next 10 days | Median next 10 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner: up 8% to 40% in 20 days | 2,641 | 47% | +1.10% | -0.68% |
| Loser: down 8% to 40% in 20 days | 3,555 | 47% | -0.74% | -0.78% |
| Rose 12% or more in 7 days | 1,310 | 50% | +3.58% | -0.06% |
| Fell 12% or more in 7 days | 1,070 | 52% | +0.20% | +0.36% |
In every situation the next ten days went up close to half the time. Holding a loser for another ten days lost 0.74% on average, and holding a winner gained 1.10% on average although its median was a small loss. After sharp rallies the average was +3.58% because a few runs kept going, while the median was about flat. The past price you paid did not decide what came next.
Costs matter too: selling and buying back the same $1,000 position at the same price costs about $3.00 in this test.
Educational, not financial advice. This is a self-check with play money, not a psychological assessment. It does not predict prices or recommend any trade.
A set of decisions that shows how you act under gains, losses and sharp moves. This one uses twelve hidden real crypto charts and reports whether you sold winners more readily than losers and whether you chased rallies or bought drops.
The habit of selling winning investments too soon and holding losing ones too long. Terrance Odean documented it in a 1998 study of 10,000 brokerage accounts: the investors realized gains far more readily than losses.
Yes. Every candle is a real Bybit spot daily candle from 2022 to 2026, downloaded with the ccxt library. The coin and the date are shown with your result.
Not in advance. On these charts the next ten days went up about half the time in every situation. The test looks at whether your choices were consistent, and it shows what they would have made after fees.
The risk tolerance quiz asks how much risk you are willing to take. This test watches what you actually do when a real position is up, down or moving fast.